◆ Vol. 01
25 indexed

The Analog Atlas

Every pharma commercialization decision has a precedent. Ask the engine, or browse the curated atlas of launches, access fights, safety setbacks, and LOE defenses.

Ask the analog engine

Describe a launch, a challenge, or a market event. We'll surface the precedents.

◆ Featured precedents
Browse the full atlas
Therapy
25 analogs

Ozempic / Wegovy

semaglutide · GLP-1

Success
Novo Nordisk·Metabolic·Peptide

Reshaped pharma economics. Obesity expansion (Wegovy 2021) and social-media-driven demand created multi-year supply shortages.

Peak
$30.0B
Y1
$240M
Yrs→Peak
7
Supply ConstraintDTC HeavyPricing Pressure+1

Mounjaro / Zepbound

tirzepatide · GIP/GLP-1 dual

Success
Eli Lilly·Metabolic·Peptide

Best-in-class efficacy (>20% weight loss) drove the fastest peptide ramp in history despite Ozempic incumbency.

Peak
$30.0B
Y1
$482M
Yrs→Peak
5
Supply ConstraintCompetitive EntryIndication Expansion

Keytruda

pembrolizumab · PD-1

Success
Merck·Oncology·Biologic

Most successful oncology drug ever. Pivotal KEYNOTE-024 first-line NSCLC monotherapy data established standard-of-care.

Peak
$27.0B
Y1
$566M
Yrs→Peak
10
Indication ExpansionCombination StrategyLOE / Biosimilar Defense

Humira

adalimumab · TNF-α

Success
AbbVie·Immunology·Biologic

Largest-selling drug in pharma history. AbbVie ran a 20-year indication expansion playbook and built a patent thicket that delayed US biosimilars until 2023.

Peak
$21.2B
Y1
$280M
Yrs→Peak
19
Indication ExpansionLOE / Biosimilar DefenseDTC Heavy

Dupixent

dupilumab · IL-4Rα

Success
Sanofi / Regeneron·Type 2 Inflammation·Biologic

Best-in-class T2 launch. Established the platform in AD, then rapidly expanded across asthma, CRSwNP, EoE, PN, and COPD.

Peak
$15.0B
Y1
$922M
Yrs→Peak
8
Category CreationIndication ExpansionDTC Heavy

Skyrizi

risankizumab · IL-23 (p19)

Success
AbbVie·Immunology·Biologic

Fastest biologic ramp in immunology history. Co-promoted alongside Humira and Rinvoq to maximize wallet share during Humira LOE transition.

Peak
$14.0B
Y1
$500M
Yrs→Peak
6
Launch SequencingCombination Strategy

Enhertu

trastuzumab deruxtecan · HER2 ADC

Success
AstraZeneca / Daiichi Sankyo·Oncology·ADC

DESTINY-Breast04 redefined HER2-low as a treatable population, expanding TAM ~3x. ILD safety signal requires monitoring infrastructure.

Peak
$12.0B
Y1
$60M
Yrs→Peak
6
Indication ExpansionDiagnostic BottleneckSafety Signal

Stelara

ustekinumab · IL-12/23

Success
J&J (Janssen)·Immunology·Biologic

J&J's flagship immunology asset. Q12W dosing was the differentiator vs. TNF inhibitors; Crohn's expansion in 2016 unlocked the GI franchise.

Peak
$10.9B
Y1
$362M
Yrs→Peak
14
Indication ExpansionLOE / Biosimilar Defense

Opdivo

nivolumab · PD-1

Mixed
BMS·Oncology·Biologic

First PD-1 approved with the fastest oncology launch ever, but lost NSCLC dominance to Keytruda after CheckMate-026 used a biomarker-unselected population.

Peak
$9.0B
Y1
$942M
Yrs→Peak
8
Competitive EntryCombination StrategyWithdrawal / Setback

Rinvoq

upadacitinib · JAK1

Success
AbbVie·Immunology·Oral Small Molecule

FDA-mandated class black box (CV / malignancy from ORAL Surveillance) restricted Rinvoq to post-TNF use. Still grew via oral convenience and indication expansion.

Peak
$8.5B
Y1
$203M
Yrs→Peak
6
Black BoxLabel RestrictionIndication Expansion

Entresto

sacubitril/valsartan · Neprilysin / ARB

Success
Novartis·Cardiovascular·Oral Small Molecule

Initial $21M Y1 reflected guideline lag and payer step therapy. Took 5+ years for guideline upgrades to drive utilization.

Peak
$7.0B
Y1
$21M
Yrs→Peak
9
Slow UptakePayer / AccessPatient Identification

Leqembi

lecanemab · Amyloid-β protofibril

Cautionary
Eisai / Biogen·Neuroscience·Biologic

First confirmed disease-modifying Alzheimer's therapy. Launch hit infrastructure walls: PET/CSF testing, infusion centers, MRI ARIA monitoring, CMS registry.

Peak
$5.0B
Y1
$82M
Yrs→Peak
7
Diagnostic BottleneckSite-of-CareSafety Signal+1

Soliris

eculizumab · C5 (complement)

Success
Alexion (AstraZeneca)·Rare Disease·Biologic

Pioneered the ultra-rare commercial model. ~400 reps globally, $500K+/year pricing, deep engagement with every treatable patient.

Peak
$4.1B
Y1
$152M
Yrs→Peak
13
Patient IdentificationPricing PressureIndication Expansion

Shingrix

zoster vaccine recombinant · gE / AS01B adjuvant

Success
GSK·Vaccines·Vaccine

97% efficacy vs. Zostavax's 51% drove rapid switching. ACIP preferential recommendation triggered demand that outstripped supply for 3 years.

Peak
$4.0B
Y1
$783M
Yrs→Peak
6
Supply ConstraintPatient Identification

Tezspire

tezepelumab · TSLP

Success
AstraZeneca / Amgen·Type 2 Inflammation·Biologic

First biomarker-agnostic severe asthma biologic. Positioned to capture the ~40% of severe asthma patients who don't fit T2-high categories.

Peak
$3.0B
Y1
$525M
Yrs→Peak
5
Patient IdentificationCompetitive Entry

Elevidys

delandistrogene moxeparvovec · Micro-dystrophin AAVrh74

Mixed
Sarepta·Rare Disease·Gene Therapy

$3.2M one-time DMD gene therapy. Initial limited approval (4-5 yo ambulatory) expanded in 2024 to broader DMD population.

Peak
$3.0B
Y1
$200M
Yrs→Peak
5
Pricing PressurePatient IdentificationSite-of-Care

Vioxx

rofecoxib · COX-2

Setback
Merck·Immunology·Oral Small Molecule

Withdrawn in 2004 after VIGOR/APPROVe linked rofecoxib to MI/stroke. Cost Merck >$5B in litigation and reshaped FDA post-marketing surveillance.

Peak
$2.5B
Y1
$330M
Yrs→Peak
4
Withdrawal / SetbackSafety Signal

Spinraza

nusinersen · SMN2 pre-mRNA

Mixed
Biogen·Rare Disease·Biologic

Explosive Y1 from pent-up demand. Eroded by Zolgensma (gene therapy) and Evrysdi (oral) — illustrating rare-disease vulnerability to next-gen modalities.

Peak
$2.1B
Y1
$884M
Yrs→Peak
3
Site-of-CareCompetitive EntryPricing Pressure

Repatha

evolocumab · PCSK9

Mixed
Amgen·Cardiovascular·Biologic

Dramatic LDL-lowering wasn't enough. Payer prior auth (>70% rates) crushed uptake until FOURIER outcomes data + 60% price cut in 2018.

Peak
$2.0B
Y1
$128M
Yrs→Peak
8
Payer / AccessPricing PressureSlow Uptake

Yescarta

axicabtagene ciloleucel · CD19 CAR-T

Success
Gilead (Kite)·Oncology·Cell Therapy

First CAR-T in lymphoma. Apheresis → manufacturing → reinfusion logistics constrained uptake to ~150 certified centers.

Peak
$1.6B
Y1
$183M
Yrs→Peak
6
Site-of-CarePatient IdentificationPricing Pressure+1

Zolgensma

onasemnogene abeparvovec · SMN1 gene replacement

Success
Novartis·Rare Disease·Gene Therapy

$2.1M one-time price became the global benchmark for gene therapy economics. Outcomes-based contracts and newborn screening expansion drove uptake.

Peak
$1.4B
Y1
$361M
Yrs→Peak
3
Pricing PressureSite-of-CarePatient Identification

Aimovig

erenumab · CGRP receptor

Mixed
Amgen / Novartis·Neuroscience·Biologic

First CGRP. Three competitors (Ajovy, Emgality, Vyepti) launched within 12 months, compressing the first-mover window.

Peak
$1.1B
Y1
$245M
Yrs→Peak
4
Category CreationDTC HeavyCompetitive Entry+1

Nurtec ODT

rimegepant · CGRP receptor

Success
Pfizer (Biohaven)·Neuroscience·Oral Small Molecule

Dual acute + prevention label was a category-first. DTC-heavy launch through Khan-led Biohaven; Pfizer acquired in 2022.

Peak
$1.0B
Y1
$64M
Yrs→Peak
4
Competitive EntryDTC HeavyPayer / Access

Exondys 51

eteplirsen · Dystrophin restoration

Mixed
Sarepta·Rare Disease·Biologic

Accelerated approval over FDA staff objection. Payer pushback on $300K/yr pricing for ~13% of DMD patients with limited efficacy data.

Peak
$0.4B
Y1
$5.4M
Yrs→Peak
5
Payer / AccessPricing PressurePatient Identification

Aduhelm

aducanumab · Amyloid-β

Setback
Biogen·Neuroscience·Biologic

Accelerated approval over advisory committee objection. CMS limited coverage to clinical trials. Discontinued in 2024.

Peak
$0.1B
Y1
$3M
Yrs→Peak
1
Withdrawal / SetbackPayer / AccessPricing Pressure